66.4% of Lebanese Shi'ites now back state control of Hezbollah weapons

For the first time since the war with Israel began, a majority of Lebanese Shi'ites prefer the state to hold Hezbollah's weapons. A survey conducted in September found that 66.4% of the 800 Shi'ite respondents supported handing the arsenal over to the Lebanese government. Only 29.6% wanted the group to keep its arms.

The results stand in contrast to data from five months earlier. In May, a survey by Lebanon's Information International found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. At that time, only 7.9% supported giving up the weapons. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni noted in a June analysis that the gap may reflect differences in how questions were phrased.

The September poll, reported by KAN and Kataeb.org, shows deepening doubts about the group's performance. Some 67.4% of respondents said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals in the war or achieved only some of them. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment or anger regarding the group's leadership and the conflict's aftermath.

Trust in the state security forces remains high. About 78.5% of respondents said they trust the Lebanese Armed Forces. The army was named the best institution to guarantee long-term security by 51.1% of participants. Hezbollah was selected for that role by only 16.5%.

Decisions on war and peace are also seen as the state's exclusive domain. According to Kataeb.org, 71.1% of respondents said these decisions should rest solely with the Lebanese state. Just 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future.

Despite the shift, a majority still trusts the group. Some 59.5% expressed some level of trust in Hezbollah, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust. KAN analyst Roi Kais noted that the group's social and economic support networks sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

Hezbollah continues to provide material aid to its base. The group announced payments of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed. Families elsewhere are eligible for up to $12,000. These payments come after a new war in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in southern villages.