New Zealand Poll: National Falls to 29%, Narrowing Gap With Labour

National Party support has dropped to 29 percent in the latest 1News-Verian poll, closing the gap with Labour, which remains steady at 27 percent.

The shift represents a three-point decline for National from its previous result of 32 percent. Meanwhile, the Green Party fell one point to 15 percent, and Te Pāti Māori reached a record low of 0.1 percent in this specific measurement.

Despite the drop for National, its coalition partners gained ground. Act rose one point to 12 percent, and New Zealand First increased two points to 10 percent. Opportunity Party declined slightly to 6 percent.

Based solely on party vote totals, these figures would allocate 34 seats to National, 15 to Act, and 12 to New Zealand First, totaling 61 seats for the right bloc.

The final composition of Parliament, however, depends on electorate wins. Te Pāti Māori is pursuing a candidate-only strategy to create an overhang, which would expand the total number of seats.

If Te Pāti Māori secures four electorate wins and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one, the left bloc would hold 56 seats, combining Labour’s 33 and the Greens’ 18. Opportunity’s eight seats would then grant it the balance of power, allowing it to choose a governing partner.

The survey, conducted between October 15 and October 19, polled 1,003 eligible voters via mobile phone and online panels. The maximum sampling error is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. In the preferred prime minister rankings, Christopher Luxon stands at 24 percent, up four points, while Chris Hipkins holds 18 percent.