Rejected Maps Could Have Cost Republicans More Seats

Republican attempts to reshape congressional districts for the 2026 midterms resulted in fewer gains than anticipated. A new analysis from Decision Desk HQ suggests the outcome might have been worse for the GOP had specific proposals in South Carolina and Indiana been adopted. The nonpartisan forecaster found that the rejected maps would have created additional opportunities for Democratic victories in both states.

The timeline of these efforts began with Republican leadership pushing for boundaries that would leave Democrats without a seat in certain districts. In South Carolina, the proposed map was designed to elect Republicans in all seven districts. However, local party members rejected the plan. In Indiana, a small group of state senators blocked the changes sought by President Trump. Trump subsequently backed primary opponents against the dissenting senators, leading to the defeat of several incumbents.

DDHQ applied House election votes to the proposed South Carolina boundaries and calculated that Democrats would have won three of the seven seats. Under the existing map, Democratic candidates secured two seats. The analysis indicates that Democrat Annie Andrews, who defeated Republican Sen. Darline Graham on Tuesday, would have won five districts under the rejected proposal.

In Indiana, the analysis used results from the statewide secretary of State election. Applying those votes to the rejected congressional map showed Democrats carrying all nine proposed districts, despite the boundaries being intended for a Republican sweep. Under the current map, Democrats won three congressional seats. Democrat Beau Bayh won the secretary of State race by nine points. He is the son of former Sen. Evan Bayh and grandson of former Sen. Birch Bayh, both of whom served as Democrats.

Maps adopted in other states also fell short of Republican expectations. In Florida, redistricting efforts aimed to capture four Democratic seats, but Republicans flipped none. In Texas, a plan intended to add five Republican seats yielded just one additional seat, while the party lost two others. In North Carolina, the redraw targeted Democratic Rep. Don Davis in the 1st Congressional District, but he retained his seat. Republicans finished within a couple of points of losing every congressional seat in that state.

In Ohio, two Democratic incumbents targeted by the new map both survived, and Democrats captured three additional seats. In Tennessee, Republicans narrowly captured the seat their redraw targeted. However, the Republican incumbent in the 4th Congressional District was trailing with nearly all ballots counted. Trump had carried that district by 24 points in 2024, and the seat was not previously considered a Democratic target.

The analysis provides a comparative view of how different boundary lines would have altered the midterm results. The data focuses on specific vote tallies applied to proposed district shapes. The findings contrast the actual outcomes with the hypothetical results of the rejected plans.