Israel Cabinet Threshold: Eisenkot Seeks 58-Seat Path

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition is preparing a backup plan to govern with fewer than the full majority required by current coalition agreements. Gadi Eisenkot has proposed a floor of 58 seats for the next government, arguing that this threshold allows a new cabinet to take office even if it falls short of the 61 members of Knesset needed for a traditional majority.

Under Eisenkot’s proposal, the government would be sworn in after winning a confidence vote without permanent backing from 61 MKs. The new cabinet would then work to widen its parliamentary support base. This approach relies on the legal distinction between forming a government and removing one. Swearing in a new administration requires a majority in a confidence vote, meaning abstentions can allow a government to take office. In contrast, removing a sitting government via a constructive vote of no confidence requires 61 MKs to back an alternative candidate.

Eisenkot rejects any arrangement where he serves under Netanyahu, including rotation deals. He has not ruled out support from the Ra'am party but stated that no formula for that cooperation has been agreed upon. The plan targets a scenario where the anti-Netanyahu camp wins between 58 and 59 seats. Most polls show this bloc ahead of the outgoing coalition, though the right-wing camp remains close in several surveys. A small shift in votes could determine whether Israel forms a new government or faces further political instability.

Avigdor Liberman opposes the minority model entirely. He insists on a Zionist majority from the start and rejects even a transitional minority government. Liberman stated that another election is preferable to a cabinet that fails to meet his conditions. He has suggested that Likud MKs might join a government without Netanyahu, though he has not named specific candidates and no public talks are currently under way.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, also demand a Zionist government and refuse to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Yair Golan, chairman of the Democrats, has not ruled out cooperation with Ra'am. A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week resulted in a joint call to increase voter turnout but did not resolve their disagreement over the cabinet structure. Leadership rivalry persists, with Eisenkot seeking to head the largest party and Bennett positioning himself as a candidate due to his prior experience as prime minister.

The opposition bloc is also working to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. This move aims to give Netanyahu’s opponents control of the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected in a public vote early in a new Knesset term. The bloc could draw on MKs from Arab parties to assemble a majority behind an agreed candidate. Names raised include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list, Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list, Efrat Rayten of the Democrats, and Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu. No consensus candidate has been announced.

Liberman estimated this week that up to one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, provided they do so openly. The bloc intends to advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription law, limits on the prime minister’s tenure, and the repeal of certain judicial changes made by the outgoing government. Liberman has also sought a bar on individuals facing criminal charges serving as prime minister.

No binding agreement exists on the details or order of these legislative priorities, though party teams have begun coordinating. Obstacles remain, as not every bloc member supports every judicial change, and a new speaker would not automatically deliver a legislative majority. Laws targeting Netanyahu could face constitutional hurdles. The memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing its promised laws, continues to influence the current effort.