Iran war costs rise as analysts see next phase after midterms

For families in the Gulf and beyond, the price of daily life is climbing again as analysts predict a new wave of combat. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official, told CBC News that a third round of fighting between the United States and Iran appears almost inevitable once the U.S. midterm elections conclude on Nov. 3. He warned that this phase could be more destructive than the previous two.

The conflict has already claimed over 7,000 lives inside Iran, according to Western non-governmental organizations. Lebanese media report that more than 4,000 people have died in Lebanon. On the U.S. side, 21 service members have been killed, primarily during Iranian attacks on bases in the Gulf. More than 70 Israelis have also died, with additional fatalities recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

The two nations have fought in two distinct wars over the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, lasting 12 days before a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February following a large U.S. military buildup, which opened with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz, who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, expects the next phase to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communication lines. He specifically cited internet cables running beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also said Iran might launch limited ground attacks from its large land army against Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to damage the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran has continued targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the midterms. He claimed on Truth Social that Tehran was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that these vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington.

Iranian negotiators are seeking relief from sanctions, reparations for damage, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon could retaliate by targeting soft economic sites such as airports.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy has not died but has been narrowed by President Trump's maximalist aims. He stated that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure combined with a clear diplomatic exit. "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed," Sadjadpour said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken openly of "finishing the job" and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz noted that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation could combine with an inflated Iranian threat to produce an unnecessary attack.

The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, according to reports from The New York Times and other U.S. outlets. It remains unknown whether President Trump will approve the strategy. The next scheduled milestone for the region is the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm election.