Trump swaps red-state rallies for telerallies as early voting data shows youth turnout gap widening

President Donald Trump canceled his scheduled weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas this week. He replaced the in-person events with as many as 20 telerallies. This strategic shift occurs days before the midterm elections. The only remaining in-person event is a rally in Florida on Friday.

The decision to scrap the Kansas and Iowa events took many Republicans by surprise. Trump told reporters that the cancellation had nothing to do with the electoral prospects of his party's candidates or his own stamina. He rebuked a reporter who asked about his health. Some senior Republican officials expressed quiet relief about the change. One official noted that the rallies had not moved the needle anywhere.

Early voting data from 25 states shows a distinct shift in turnout patterns. Registered Democrats are currently leading registered Republicans by nearly 15 points. That margin is 10 points larger than it was at the same time in the 2024 cycle. The gap is even wider among younger voters. Democrats lead Republicans by 31 points among those under age 30. That represents a 20-point increase compared to two years ago.

The divergence is driven primarily by a drop in participation among younger Republicans. Republicans under age 30 have cast only 30% of the ballots they cast at this point in the 2024 election. In contrast, younger Democrats have cast 63% of their 2024 baseline. Among voters aged 30 to 49, Democrats hold a 27-point lead, up 15 points from the previous cycle. The gap is smaller but still present among those over 65, where Democrats lead by 11 points.

A Republican National Committee official acknowledged the difficulty of the current campaign. The official said Republicans must sell voters on Trump's accomplishments while addressing economic concerns. They must also convince voters that a Democratic takeover of Congress would be worse. The official described the task as harder than simply saying the president is bad. They added that the party must aggressively remind voters of the election date and stakes.

In Alaska, the Justice Department has accelerated a criminal probe into the state's Senate race. Sources indicate the department is investigating whether Democrats sought to confuse voters by recruiting a second Dan Sullivan to the ballot. This candidate, known as Decoy Dan, is unrelated to the incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. The DOJ has issued dozens of new grand jury subpoenas. State officials said a judge should reject the department's attempt to delay certification based on these new findings.

Voters in Anchorage told CNN that the controversy is not changing who they support. Several residents at a polling center in the midtown neighborhood said the situation with the two Sullivans did not influence their choices. A state official noted that some voters are still filling out ballots incorrectly despite being aware of the issue. It is unclear how many spoiled ballots result from this confusion.

Elon Musk announced on X that he has voted early in Texas. He did not specify which candidates he supported, but he is the largest single disclosed donor for this cycle. Musk expressed concern that a Democratic victory could lead to the statehood of Puerto Rico and D.C., the legalization of all people living in the country illegally, and an expansion of the Supreme Court. He wrote that such changes would turn America into a permanent one-party state.

In Texas, a super PAC that received $10 million from Musk is running an AI-powered robocall campaign. The calls attack Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico for taking money from data center groups. Talarico called the tactic rich, noting he is the only candidate with a plan to crack down on those companies. He said the ads focus on data centers that do not meet community demands.

In Ohio, the campaign for Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy stopped running a controversial ad featuring the estranged mother of his opponent, Amy Acton. Ramaswamy said the ad ran to completion and was replaced by four other spots. Meanwhile, the Justice Department filed a second emergency appeal in California regarding a list of 20,000 supposed noncitizens. The department also issued subpoenas to local election officials in that state.