Colleges Admit Five Times More Students Than They Can Enroll

Colleges must admit approximately five times as many students as they need to fill their incoming classes, a practice driven by a sharp decline in the national yield rate. Federal data indicates that the percentage of admitted students who actually enroll dropped from 32 percent in 2014 to 22 percent at public institutions by 2024. Private nonprofit universities saw a similar decline, falling from 24 percent to 18 percent over the same period. This shift forces enrollment managers to over-admit applicants to account for those who apply to multiple schools and ultimately choose elsewhere.

The pressure stems from a shrinking demographic base. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education projects a 13 percent decline in the supply of traditional-age freshmen over the next 15 years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the share of high school graduates enrolling in college fell from 70 percent in 2016 to 63 percent in 2024. In response, two-thirds of admissions leaders reported difficulty meeting enrollment targets in at least one of the last two years, according to a survey by Niche.

Institutions are altering their strategies to capture the remaining applicants. Public universities in 17 states now admit high school students who have not formally applied. More than 150 private colleges extend direct admission offers to students who submit the Common App. Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, New York, has begun enlisting faculty to meet with prospective students, a role previously reserved for the admissions office. Skidmore President Marc Conner stated, "We depend on students coming to our campuses and, when they do come, getting them to enroll."

The college recorded 300 personal visits last year where admitted students requested to sit in on classes or meet with faculty members. Vice President for Enrollment Jess Ricker noted that these interactions help create a sense of belonging. "It creates a feeling of what it would be like to be seen, valued and to find a place of belonging on a campus," Ricker said. Similar initiatives are underway at Ohio Northern University, where faculty members meet with every visiting applicant, and at Washington College in Maryland, which holds designated Fridays for faculty applicant meetings.

Admission rates have risen significantly for most applicants. The National Association for College Admission Counseling reports that nearly 80 percent of first-year applicants to public colleges and 70 percent to private institutions are accepted. These figures are up from 68 percent and 65 percent, respectively, about a decade ago. Despite these odds, more than 40 percent of adults aged 18 to 29 believe it is harder to get into college than it was for their parents, a Pew Research Center survey found. NACAC CEO Angel Pérez attributed this misconception to a focus on elite institutions that admit roughly one in 25 applicants.

Skidmore College, which has 2,719 students, has seen its application numbers rise while its acceptance rate has dropped from 37 percent to 24 percent over the last ten years. Its yield stands at 24 percent, which is above the national average. Conner said the institution is encouraging all staff, from dining hall workers to groundskeepers, to be welcoming to visitors. "It helps that we're in a tough time in higher ed and they see what's happening at other schools," Conner said.