Likud Factions Clash Over Election Prospects as Rivals Push Turnout

Likud members are divided over the party's chances in the Israeli election scheduled for Tuesday, according to a party source. While some officials express confidence in victory, others worry about a coordinated effort to boost turnout among voters opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The optimism of certain Likud figures rests on the internal polling conducted by Shlomo Filber, who leads the party's data operations. A party source described the internal mood by saying, "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so." The source characterized Filber's role with the phrase, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

A primary source of tension involves nonprofit organizations that party sources say are spending heavily to mobilize opposition voters. These groups reportedly deployed social media campaigns, physical signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. They also ran programs to encourage Israelis living abroad to return for the vote. One Likud source labeled the effort "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing these groups provide a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules, though no documentation for the funding amounts was provided.

Likud officials also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claimed the committee focused on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while paying insufficient attention to the activities of these external organizations.

In preparation for Tuesday, Likud is organizing a large-scale ground operation to prevent right-wing voters from drifting to smaller parties. The party faced a setback in its efforts to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, leader of the People of Israel party, to withdraw from the race. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, remained in the contest after Rabbi Eli Sadan issued a statement supporting him following discussions.

Likud is also engaging with other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race after negotiations with Likud. During those talks, the parties discussed legislation that would allow Ahi to name a deputy minister. A survey released days before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided how to cast their ballots.

The election date of October 27 allows Netanyahu's current government to complete its full term. As the voting process begins, the internal split within Likud highlights the uncertainty facing the party regarding the final tally of votes.