Bills, Vikings Set for Super Bowl LXI Clash in Simulation

Analytics expert Stephen Oh ran a full-season simulation that projects the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings will meet in Super Bowl LXI. The model, which accounts for the remaining 165 regular-season games and all 13 playoff contests, places the Bills as the 2026 NFL champions.

The projection follows Week 7, during which the two previously unbeaten teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, both suffered losses. This shift altered the playoff landscape, moving the No. 1 seed in the NFC from the 49ers to the undefeated Vikings (6-0). In the AFC, the Bills (5-1) secured the top spot after the Chiefs (5-1) fell, dropping Kansas City to the No. 2 seed.

Oh's simulation determines the division winners and wild-card teams. In the AFC, the Bills and Chiefs lead their respective divisions, while the Jaguars (4-2) and Bengals (4-2) also claim titles. The Broncos (4-2), Steelers (5-2), and Ravens (4-3) earn wild-card berths, with the Patriots (4-3) and Browns (5-2) finishing just outside the field. The Browns, who have not won a division title since 1989, are projected to finish 8-9.

In the NFC, the Vikings take the top seed, followed by the Falcons (3-4) and Cowboys (3-4) as division winners. The Lions (4-2), Seahawks (4-3), and Bears (5-2) qualify as wild cards, while the Packers (4-3) and Rams (3-4) miss the playoffs. The simulation notes that Dallas is projected to win the NFC East, holding a 38.5% chance to take the division, slightly ahead of the Giants at 37.3%.

The playoff path begins with the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Broncos advancing from the wild-card round in the AFC. The 49ers, Seahawks, and Lions move on in the NFC. In the divisional round, the Bills beat the Broncos, and the Chiefs defeat the Jaguars. The Vikings overcome the Seahawks 20-17, and the 49ers beat the Lions 29-28.

Buffalo eliminates Kansas City 28-23 in the AFC title game, marking the Bills' first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. Minnesota defeats San Francisco 23-20 in the NFC championship. The simulation has the Bills winning Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium 26-21, claiming their first Lombardi Trophy.

The model assigns the Bills a 12.97% probability of winning the title, the highest among all teams. The Vikings follow at 11.15%, with the Chiefs at 9.5%, the 49ers at 8.4%, and the Jaguars at 8.3%. This is the first week the Bills have been projected as the champions in Oh's simulations.