Israel Vote Leaves Blocs at 103 Seats as Arab Parties Hold Path to 61

Neither of Israel's two main political blocs secured the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset as vote counting continued Wednesday afternoon, with roughly 80 percent of ballots tallied. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-centered coalition stood at 54 seats. The opposition alliance led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot held 49.

The Arab-dominated Ra'am and Joint List hold 17 seats combined, enough to carry either bloc past the 61-seat threshold needed to name a speaker, pass laws and assemble a government. Full results are expected by Friday, with official figures published November 4. Turnout reached 77.7 percent of eligible voters, the highest level since 1999. Among Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up one-fifth of the population, turnout was about 80 percent by some estimates, also above the 1999 figure.

Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University who studies Israeli voting behavior, said having only two well-organized lists improved mobilization, particularly for the Islamist Ra'am, which he said ran a more efficient campaign than usual. Analysts linked the surge among Palestinian citizens to their treatment under the Likud-led government, especially since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and to coordinated get-out-the-vote work.

Both blocs ran campaigns that critics called discriminatory. Likud made unsubstantiated claims that the opposition planned to rely on Arab parties and petitioned to bar the Joint List from running. Avigdor Lieberman ruled out a coalition with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties, while Naftali Bennett, whose 2021-22 coalition included Ra'am, said there was "no mandate" to govern with Arab parties after October 7. Former government adviser Daniel Levy argued the opposition "got what they deserved" and outlined four paths: a new election, Likud drawing defectors from the opposition's right flank, a Netanyahu-led unity government, or an Eisenkot-led minority government with Arab support. He called the last option unlikely, though he said the Arab parties' asking price would not be particularly high.

Mairav Zonszein of the Crisis Group said it would be very hard for Eisenkot to work with Netanyahu's camp because of Eisenkot's demands for a state commission of inquiry into October 7 and a universal draft that includes the ultra-Orthodox. Bennett has changed course before, she noted, while Lieberman remains a hard-right politician despite his dislike of Netanyahu. Tel Aviv University political psychologist Daniel Bar Tal said many Israelis "want change but do not want to cooperate with Arab parties."

President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on their preferred prime minister, then task the candidate he believes can best form a government. That candidate would have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If the mandate fails to produce a government, it can pass to another member of parliament; if that also fails, the Knesset dissolves, new elections are called, and the current cabinet remains in a caretaker role.