Musk puts lunar refueling bill at 8 launches, NASA panel cites 22

Elon Musk said Thursday that fueling a Starship lunar lander will require six to eight launches, not the 22 cited by a NASA advisory group, putting a public number on a cost dispute that touches SpaceX's launch schedule and NASA's Artemis IV budget for a 2028 Moon landing.

The exchange followed the quarterly public meeting of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, where member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, said propellant transfers for the lander are a major risk for the mission. "We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander," Precourt said, adding, "I think the last estimate is around 22 flights." Ars Technica's Eric Berger relayed the remark on X, and Musk replied: "That's way too high. Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

Each tanker mission is a full Starship launch, so the count sets launch cost, schedule and the number of failure points before a crew leaves Earth. Berger estimated that even at two Starship launches a week by the end of 2027, filling a depot at the panel's figure would take about three months. The two sides differ on how much propellant a tanker can carry to orbit and how much boils off in the cold of space during storage and transfer. NASA's figure reflects Starship's current performance; Musk's range assumes a more capable vehicle.

Musk has argued lower numbers before. After a government document in 2021 put the count at 16 launches, he called that "extremely unlikely" and said eight tankers would be the maximum needed. The hardware that would settle the question has not yet flown: SpaceX plans to run the transfers with an upgraded V3 Starship. Precourt called Artemis IV "a large number of firsts" and noted that NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's team is working to clear obstacles for SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander needs no orbital refueling on its first mission.