Democratic Edge Opens in Texas District Redrawn for GOP by 18 Points

Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido polls five to six points ahead in Texas's 15th district, a contest Republicans redrew in 2025 to build an 18-point advantage. Pulido, a two-time Latin Grammy winner, has kept his distance from the national party label and campaigned on costs. "This isn't New York, this isn't LA," he said.

The district sits in a Rio Grande Valley that delivered Donald Trump roughly 55% of the Texas Hispanic vote in 2024, a record for a Republican presidential candidate. Surveys taken since late summer show a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapprove of the president and favor Democrats over Republicans. Texas accounted for about one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, according to figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project, more than any other state.

Border crossings are now at their lowest level in decades after more than two and a half million apprehensions were recorded in a single year under former President Joe Biden. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, said he expects a difficult race but credits the administration with securing the border. Most people accept deporting criminals, he said, but deporting productive, law-abiding people is where the problem begins.

Mario Guerrero, who leads the South Texas Builders Association and voted for Trump three times, plans to vote Democrat in November. He said voters were not told how far the administration would go. An acquaintance of his ran a crew of 35 daily workers and now draws four to six, Guerrero said. Republican consultant Mike Madrid noted that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents.

At La Lomita Catholic Chapel, about 200 yards from the Rio Grande, Father Roy Snipes preached to about 30 worshippers on ICE enforcement. "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours," he told them. At a local avocado festival, Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for higher prices. Baldwin said: "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job."

Republican campaigners say they are working from behind. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga called the midterms "purely a game of turnout". Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring Democratic-held 28th district, credited Trump with "breaking through barriers" but said the "national political headwinds are real". The 3 November midterms are 11 days away.