Prices, tariffs drive AP poll showing 70% think US heading wrong way

The Associated Press reports that the current midterm election is being shaped significantly by voter frustration over the cost of living. According to AP-NORC polling, approximately 70 percent of U.S. adults believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. This sentiment is closely tied to economic performance, with most respondents blaming President Donald Trump for high prices. The data indicates that only 25 percent of adults approve of the president's handling of the economy, a figure that sits below his overall job approval rating of 35 percent. These numbers suggest that financial strain is a primary driver for voters heading into polls on Tuesday.

In Raleigh, North Carolina, the impact of these macro trends is felt at the individual level. James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian, described the cumulative effect of rising costs on his household. He stated that he is paying more for taxes, healthcare, and general goods. His comments reflect the broader narrative captured in the AP-NORC survey, where the average American is feeling the weight of inflation. The AP notes that voters are struggling with high prices, a sentiment that appears to be driving turnout in key battleground states. For many Democrats, the cost of living is not just a statistic but a daily reality that influences their ballot choices.

Tariffs have emerged as a specific economic pain point in several competitive races. The AP highlights that economic strain and tariffs have made Maine a competitive Senate race. In that state, Senator Susan Collins faces a challenge from Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The AP analysis suggests that the trade policies of the administration have resonated with voters in states with significant industrial or agricultural sectors. This economic focus is part of a larger trend where fiscal policy is overshadowing other traditional partisan issues in the minds of undecided voters.

Contrasting views exist in other parts of the country. In Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, voter Mark Barker expressed a different perspective on the administration's economic record. He stated that he has been following the president closely and believes he is doing an awesome job. This divergence illustrates the split in the electorate that the AP-NORC poll captures. While a majority see the country moving in the wrong direction, a significant minority remains supportive of the current economic leadership. This split is particularly evident in states like Florida, which is using new congressional maps for the first time in this cycle.

Beyond individual perceptions, the structural dynamics of the election are influencing how economic issues are framed. Republicans have utilized a significant financial advantage to amplify their message. AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts that Trump won in 2024. This includes more than $850 million in spending in areas where his victory margin was 10 points or more. This strategy aims to consolidate support in areas where economic satisfaction may be higher or where the incumbent base is most loyal.

Democrats, meanwhile, are focusing on the narrative of change driven by voter anger. Representative Suzan DelBene, the DCCC Chair, stated that the American people are angry and want change. This messaging aligns with the AP-NORC finding that a large portion of the country views the economic trajectory negatively. If Democrats secure a majority in either chamber, investigations and potential impeachment proceedings are likely to increase. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda that prioritizes the cost of living and oversight of the administration, signaling that economic scrutiny will be a central feature of any Democratic-controlled Congress.

The election also involves significant structural changes that affect the playing field. Six states, including California, Florida, and North Carolina, are using new congressional maps following mid-decade redistricting. Ohio is also using a new map. These changes are critical because they determine which voters are in which districts. The AP notes that Republicans tried to beat the historical midterm pattern of seat loss through redistricting, but the effectiveness of these new lines remains to be seen. New districts in Florida and other states may not vote exactly as their maps suggest, adding another layer of uncertainty to the economic narrative.

Voter turnout is a key variable in this economic referendum. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. High turnout is often associated with midterm elections where the incumbent party faces a challenge. The AP describes Democrats as cautiously optimistic, while Republicans are bracing for potential losses in the House. The AP notes that one or two seats could tip the balance in either chamber, making the economic message of each campaign crucial in the final days before polls close.

The administration has also engaged in legal actions that intersect with the election's administration. A federal judge temporarily barred a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, while another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding the segregation of ballots by suspected noncitizens in California. Critics argue these moves risk disenfranchising eligible voters. While these legal battles are procedural, they occur against the backdrop of an election where voters are already sensitive to the government's handling of their daily lives and economic security.

The final hours of the election day will see millions casting ballots in races that will determine the balance of power for the rest of the term. In the U.S. Senate, 35 seats are on the ballot, including special elections for the remaining terms of Marco Rubio and JD Vance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, while Republicans can afford to lose only two. The AP-NORC numbers provide a baseline for understanding how the economy is influencing these high-stakes contests, with the cost of living remaining the central concern for a majority of the electorate as they enter the voting booth.